Allegation: Election Fraud

Synopsis: Jim Hoft alleged in The Gateway Pundit article that the documented 66.2% of voter turnout is evidence that 13 million duplicate or fraudulent votes were counted for presumed president-elect Joe Biden.

Conclusion: Unsupported. The 66.2% voter turnout is not based on registered voters. It is a comparison of how many ballots were counted and the previously estimated Voting Eligible Population.

Case Study:

Upon review of Hoft’s sources, I learned the 66.2% voter turnout rate is not based on ‘registered voters.’ It is based on actual estimated number of ballots counted vs. Voting Eligible Population (VEP). The VEP is calculated based on the in-country estimated population of voting age reduced by percent of estimated non-citizens, less ineligible felons, plus overseas eligible voters. The VEP is a fair boundary forecast for potential election registrations as well as a comparison of the previously estimated potential registrations vs. the actual outcome, but is not in any way tethered to actual voter registrations. Because of this, 66.2% does not even rise to the level of bad evidence and becomes pure garbage value for fraud detection purposes. With 158,240,239 ballots and 213,799,467 registered voters, the registered voter turnout appears to be 74%. However, this is working backwards from the ballot count conclusion, which is itself in debate.

The argument can be stated thus: “More ballots were cast than the number of registered voters that voted.”

However, it appears historically the number of registered voters that cast their ballots was abbreviated to number of ballots counted. If each precinct ensures that every ballot corresponds to a single registered voter, and that no more than one ballot is counted for that registered voter, then ideally the number of counted ballots corresponds to the number of eligible voters that voted. It becomes a trusted value.

The corollary is also true; that if a precinct simply counts all ballots received without appropriate safeguards, then the total number of counted ballots can bear no direct relation to the number of legal ballots received. This is due to additional variables such as duplicate or otherwise fraudulent ballots potentially being introduced. This point is the bulk of external debate.

As of this writing, I have found no data set recording the number of actual registered voters which were documented having cast a ballot. This may be due to voter privacy protections or lack of due diligence.

It is possible the documented VEP could be reduced by a significant enough number of ineligible ballots to put it below the threshold of cast ballots, which (due to VEP’s inaccuracy) would only indicate a probability that fraudulent ballots were cast. However, since VEP is based on population estimates, this introduces extraneous variables such as unexpected population increases or decreases in the makeup of VEP’s composite formula, which given the absence of hardened data, can wildly influence the result in either direction rendering it an unreliable base for any form of fraud detection.



Note: This is a draft version of the casefile. However, I stand by the conclusion as a result of the best evidence I have recovered as of this writing. I am reposting one day later than the initial release, due to site development changes..


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